Assessing Climatic Suitability and Conservation Priorities for the Endangered Oak Quercus kingiana

Yan Wu, Yong-Jing-Wen Yang, Kate Good, and Min Deng

Published May 2026 in International Oaks No. 37: 275–284

Abstract

Quercus kingiana is an endangered evergreen oak confined to the montane forests of northern Southeast Asia. Using an Ensemble of Small Models (ESM) built from 16 verified occurrence records, we evaluated its current and future climatic suitability under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Primarily shaped by temperature stability and seasonal precipitation, the models indicate that suitable habitats are concentrated in the Shan Plateau in southwestern Yunnan and in northern Thailand. Future projections suggest substantial reductions (50-60%) in suitable habitats and increased fragmentation, with suitable areas shifting toward isolated high-elevation refugia. These findings highlight the high climatic sensitivity of the species and underscore the urgent need to conserve climatically stable refugia and maintain elevational connectivity to ensure the long-term survival of Q. kingiana under accelerating climate change.

Keywords

northern Southeast Asia, Ensemble of Small Models (ESM), climate change, habitat fragmentation

References

Achard, F., H.D. Eva, H.-J. Stibig, P. Mayaux, J. Gallego, T. Richards, …and J.P. Malingreau. 2002. Determination of Deforestation Rates of the World’s Humid Tropical Forests. Science 297(5583): 999-1002. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1070656

Bain, R.H., and M.M. Hurley. 2011. A Biogeographic Synthesis of the Amphibians and Reptiles of Indochina. Bulletin of the American Museum of Natural History 360: 1-138. https://doi.org/10.1206/360.1

Breiner, F.T., A. Guisan, A. Bergamini, and M.P. Nobis. 2015. Overcoming Limitations of Modelling Rare Species by Using Ensembles of Small Models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 6(10): 1210-1218. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12403

Breiner, F.T., M.P. Nobis, A. Bergamini, and A. Guisan. 2018. Optimizing ensembles of small models for predicting the distribution of species with few occurrences. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9(4): 802-808. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12957

Carrero, C., D. Jerome, E. Beckman, A. Byrne, A.J. Coombes, M. Deng, …and M. Westwood, M. 2020. The Red List of Oaks. Lisle: The Morton Arboretum.

Chen, I.-C., J.K. Hill, R. Ohlemüller, D.B. Roy, and C. D. Thomas. 2011. Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming. Science 333(6045): 1024-1026. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206432

de Bruyn, M., B. Stelbrink, R.J. Morley, R. Hall, G.R. Carvalho, C.H. Cannon, …and T. von Rintelen. 2014. Borneo and Indochina Are Major Evolutionary Hotspots for Southeast Asian Biodiversity. Systematic Biology 63 (6): 879-901. https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syu047

Deng, M., X.-L. Jiang, A.L. Hipp, P.S. Manos, and M. Hahn. 2018. Phylogeny and biogeography of East Asian evergreen Oaks (Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis; Fagaceae): Insights into the Cenozoic history of evergreen broad-leaved forests in subtropical Asia. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution 119: 170-181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2017.11.003

Dormann, C.F., J. Elith, S. Bacher, C. Buchmann, G. Carl, G. Carré, …and S. Lautenbach. 2013. Collinearity: A review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 36(1): 27-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07348.x

Dyderski, M.K., S. Paź, L.E. Frelich, and A.M. Jagodziński. 2018. How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? Global Change Biology 24(3): 1150-1163. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13925

IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, and B. Rama. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009325844.

Jiang, X.-L., E.M. Gardner, H.-H. Meng, M. Deng, and G.-B. Xu. 2019. Land bridges in the Pleistocene contributed to flora assembly on the continental islands of South China: Insights from the evolutionary history of Quercus championii. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution 132: 36-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2018.11.021

Lin, L., X.-L. Jiang, K.-Q. Guo, A. Byrne, and M. Deng. 2023. Climate change impacts the distribution of Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis (Fagaceae), a deystone lineage in East Asian evergreen broadleaved forests. Plant Diversity 45(5): 552-568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pld.2023.03.014

Luo, Y., and Z.-K. Zhou. 2001. Phytogeography of Quercus subg. Cyclobalanopsis. Acta Botanica Yunnanica 23(1): 1-16.

Oliver, T.H., and M.D. Morecroft. 2014. Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities. WIREs Climate Change 5 (3): 317-335. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.271

Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286

Peters, R.L., and J.D.S. Darling 1985. The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves: Global warming would diminish biological diversity by causing extinctions among reserve species. BioScience 35(11): 707-717. https://doi.org/10.2307/1310052

Song, H., X. Zhang, X. Wang, Y. Wang, S. Li, and Y. Xu. 2023. Not the expected poleward migration: Impact of climate change scenarios on the distribution of two endemic evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species in china. Science of The Total Environment 889: 164273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164273

Stibig, H.-J., F. Achard, S. Carboni, R. Raši, and J. Miettinen. 2014. Change in tropical forest cover of Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2010. Biogeosciences 11(2): 247-258. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-247-2014

Thuiller, W., D.M. Richardson, P.Pyšek., G.F. Midgley, G.O. Hughes, and M. Rouget. 2005. Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology 11(12): 2234-2250. https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1365-2486.2005.001018.x

Venter, O., E.W. Sanderson, A. Magrach, J.R. Allan, J. Beher, K.R. Jones, …and J.E.M. Watson. 2016. Global terrestrial Human Footprint maps for 1993 and 2009. Scientific Data 3: 160067. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2016.67

Zhou, Z.-K. 1993. Geographical distribution of Quercus from China. Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 10(1):95-108.

Zhu, Y., X. Xu, Z. Xi, and J. Liu. 2023. Conservation priorities for endangered trees facing multiple threats around the world. Conservation Biology 37(6): e14142. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14142

Zurell, D., J. Franklin, C. König, P.J. Bouchet, C.F. Dormann, J. Elith, …and C. Merow. 2020. A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models. Ecography 43(9): 1261-1277. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04960